Here’s what needs to happen for Alabama football to make the College Football Playoff
The Alabama Crimson Tide, a perennial powerhouse in college football, find themselves in a familiar but precarious position: on the brink of the College Football Playoff (CFP). With a strong finish to the regular season and a high-stakes SEC Championship on the horizon, Alabama has a legitimate shot at securing a playoff berth. However, their path is not entirely within their control. Here’s what needs to happen for the Tide to make their way into the top four.
1. Beat Georgia in the SEC Championship
The most critical step is obvious: Alabama must defeat the No. 1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. A win against the reigning national champions would serve as the ultimate statement victory, solidifying Alabama’s case as one of the top four teams in the nation.
Nick Saban’s squad has steadily improved throughout the season, with quarterback Jalen Milroe leading a resurgent offense. The defense, anchored by players like Dallas Turner and Kool-Aid McKinstry, has proven capable of stifling even the most explosive opponents. To beat Georgia, Alabama will need to play its most complete game of the season.
2. Chaos in Other Conferences
Even with an SEC Championship win, Alabama may need help from results in other conferences. Here are the key scenarios to watch:
- Pac-12: Washington or Oregon would need to suffer a convincing loss in the Pac-12 Championship. A one-loss Pac-12 champion might still edge Alabama, but a two-loss scenario opens the door wider.
- Big Ten: If Michigan or Ohio State, both undefeated entering their regular-season finale, stumbles in an ugly loss to the other, the CFP Committee could weigh Alabama’s resume more favorably.
- ACC: Florida State’s standing as an undefeated ACC champion is strong, but a loss in the ACC Championship Game could spell trouble for their CFP hopes. Without Jordan Travis, their star quarterback, an unconvincing performance might make them vulnerable.
3. Style Points Matter
Even if Alabama beats Georgia, the manner of their victory will be scrutinized. A close win might keep the debate alive for other contenders, while a dominant performance would leave little doubt about Alabama’s place among the elite. Style points may also help mitigate concerns over Alabama’s earlier loss to Texas, which looms large in discussions about the Tide’s playoff credentials.
4. The Committee’s SEC Bias
Historically, the CFP Committee has shown respect for the SEC’s strength of schedule and competitive depth. Alabama’s victories over teams like LSU and Tennessee bolster their resume. Additionally, the narrative surrounding the SEC Champion as deserving of a playoff spot could work in Alabama’s favor, especially if their only loss came early in the season to a top-10 team.
What Happens if Alabama Wins but Misses the CFP?
If Alabama beats Georgia but still misses the CFP, it would mark one of the most contentious debates in the playoff era. The possibility of a two-loss SEC Champion missing the playoff entirely could prompt renewed calls for the expanded 12-team format set to debut in 2025.
Bottom Line
The Crimson Tide’s destiny begins with their performance in the SEC Championship, but it doesn’t end there. Alabama fans will also need to keep an eye on key games in other conferences and hope for the right mix of chaos.
As always, Nick Saban’s Alabama team remains a force to be reckoned with. If the chips fall in their favor, the Tide could find themselves back in the CFP, chasing yet another national title.